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Economists study eBay

From eBay, economists are learning interesting lessons about how people spend their money. The results they're seeing are not always rational. [Link]

Most economists assume these kinds of auctions are largely immune to the passions and unpredictabilities of ravenous bidders, she says. Simple bargain hunting, they hope, would bring out our inner homo economicus, someone who acts in their self-interest to get the best deal possible.

No such luck, she says.

Ms. Malmendier tracked 166 auctions offering CashFlow 101, a personal-finance-themed board game. During the seven-month trial, the game's designer sold the box set on his website for $195.

Meanwhile, eBay sellers usually offered an opening price of about $45 and set a one-click, "buy it now" price of about $125. It looked like a great deal for buyers. They could pay less than retail to end the auction immediately or place bids in the hope of fetching an even lower price.

But this is where eBay users fell prey to what Malmendier and her coauthor, Stanford University economist Hanh Lee, call "bidder's curse." Apparently, some bidders grew so enthusiastic about winning the auction that they lost sight of the "buy it now" price, sometimes offering more than $185.

"We found that in 43% of the auctions the bidders ended up paying more than the 'buy it now' price," Malmendier says.

"This is really huge. It's far more than I could have expected."

jon posted this at 7:57 AM
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